The integration of artificial intelligence and quantum computing into the rare earth minerals sector could potentially shrink the development timeline for synthetic substitutes from a span of 10 to 20 years to just a few years, according to Jack Hidary, CEO of SandboxAQ. The focus on these technologies aims to not only create viable alternatives but also mitigate the geopolitical risks associated with concentrated supply chains.
China currently dominates the rare earth market, controlling the majority of global mining operations and nearly 90 percent of processing and refining capacity. This stronghold has been bolstered by the nation’s willingness to take on significant environmental and health risks, a factor that has hindered other countries' efforts to establish competitive supply chains. Despite the technological advancements being explored, analysts note that transitioning from laboratory innovations to large-scale production remains a daunting challenge.
As tensions rise between the U.S. and China, Beijing has enacted export restrictions on certain heavy rare earth elements, further complicating the landscape for Western nations attempting to secure alternative supply routes. The urgency for these countries to develop independent sources of rare earth materials is growing, yet establishing a foothold in this critical industry remains a substantial hurdle.